The poll of 5,180 British adults, conducted by communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus, reveals that if a General Election were called tomorrow, Reform would secure 25% of the national vote share, compared to 23% for Labour and the Conservatives, respectively.
This would give Reform a predicted 227 seats, Labour 180 seats and the Conservatives 130 seats, making a Reform-Conservative coalition government with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister increasingly likely.
The data also revealed a lack of trust in Party leaders, with a third of voters (33%) saying they don’t trust any of the major party leaders to represent the UK on the international stage, and a further 24% of voters not being sure who they can trust.
Reform’s surge since the 2024 General Election is especially prevalent in the East Midlands where the party is currently forecast to win 23 of the 32 parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire.
Eighteen of these seats are projected to move from Labour to Reform UK - including Mansfield - and four from the Conservatives to Farage’s party. Reform politician Lee Anderson is forecast to retain his Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire.
The projected vote in seven East Midlands constituencies has changed since PLMR and Electoral Calculus’ previous poll in February, indicating major indecision and uncertainty among the region’s electorate. Four of these seats have been lost by Labour to Reform.
In the latest poll, Sir Kier Starmer and Nigel Farage were tied as the most trusted Party leaders to represent the UK internationally, each securing support from 16% of the British public. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, fell behind with just 5% of voters trusting her international leadership.
Trust in delivering for the UK on the global stage correlated with voters’ hopes and fears on their own personal finances across the UK, suggesting trust in being able to move the needle domestically is essential for being a trusted leader internationally.
PLMR and Electoral Calculus’ MRP polling data from February and April has shown that those who believe their finances will improve are more likely to trust in Starmer’s international leadership, and unlikely to trust Farage.
Conversely, voters who expect their finances to worsen show a strong correlation with trust in Farage, highlighting that getting domestic economic policies right will be crucial ahead of the next election.
Kevin Craig, Founder and CEO of PLMR, which commissioned the poll, said:
“As the three-horse race for Number 10 continues, it is striking that the majority of the public, in the Midlands and right across the country, either don’t know which of the UK’s Party leaders they can trust, or don’t trust anyone to represent the UK on the international stage.
“This speaks to a wider crisis of political confidence that the Prime Minister must grapple with in order to regain support in the Midlands and to remain in Government in four years’ time. While Sir Keir Starmer continues to perform well abroad and project stability on the global stage, these numbers show that success overseas doesn’t automatically translate to trust at home.
“The Prime Minister must now focus on getting his message across to voters in all parts of the UK, and instilling confidence in his domestic economic agenda, as this continues to be essential for unlocking voter support.”
Lee Corden, Director of PLMR Advent, based in the Midlands, said:
“The Midlands is always a key battleground in every General Election and it will be extremely interesting to watch how sentiment towards the Government and opposition parties shifts in the coming months and years.
“The Government set its stall out to deliver economic growth and, while it is too early to judge them on that, it will have a significant impact on its standing by the time we get round to the next election.”
Martin Baxter, Founder of Electoral Calculus, said:
"British politics is experiencing an unprecedented three-way race. There are now three major parties, but none of them are popular enough to win an outright majority. The situation is extremely fluid, and small movements in popular support will make big changes to the parliamentary arithmetic. Reform are ahead at the moment, but it is still very close overall."